FRED stands for Federal Reserve Economic Data. The St. Louis Fed maintains it, and it holds time series covering growth, prices, jobs and interest rates. Each series keeps its full history, so a reading can be judged against its own past rather than only against a forecast.

Payrolls rose by just 29,000 in September, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%. Every monthly payroll figure starts as a preliminary estimate. August’s first reading of +162,000 was revised to +133,000, and the two-month net revision came to -60,000. That revision is close to the size of September’s shortfall against forecast. A reader who only sees the headline sees a miss. A reader who also tracks revisions learns that the labor market was already softer than the first August print suggested.

Payrolls and unemployment come first, on Friday, November 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET. The unemployment rate moves in steps of 0.1 point, so a move from 4.2% to 4.3% will dominate the headlines even though it is small. CPI follows on Tuesday, November 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Weekly jobless claims give the fastest read on layoffs between monthly reports. The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread shows whether bond markets are pricing growth or policy risk.

The Macro channel tracks 18 FRED series in five groups: growth, inflation, labor, rates and policy. Each series shows a sparkline, its current value, its previous value and its direction. The live yield curve runs from 1-month to 30-year Treasuries, displays the 10Y minus 2Y spread directly, and labels the curve as normal, flat or inverted. Most FRED series update monthly, so the panel changes mainly when a new release lands.

FRED records what was measured. It does not forecast the Fed’s next move. Use the series to judge the data, then use the News channel’s FedWatch chart to see what fed funds futures imply for rates.

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