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Market Analysis

Data-driven breakdowns of equities, macro, and market structure

Market Analysis

What Are Market Breadth Indicators, and Why Is This Week's Divergence Worth Watching?

Aug 31, 2026

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3 min read

What Are Market Breadth Indicators, and Why Is This Week's Divergence Worth Watching?

70% of S&P 500 stocks sit above their 200-day moving average. Only 54% remain above their 50-day. Both numbers are true at once, and they're telling different stories.

Forex

+1

What Is a Yen Carry Trade, and Why Didn't Crypto Follow the Textbook Playbook This Month?

Aug 17, 2026

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3 min read

What Is a Yen Carry Trade, and Why Didn't Crypto Follow the Textbook Playbook This Month?

The US and Japan just ran their first joint yen intervention since 1998. Bitcoin's actual correlation data this month broke from the story everyone assumed.

Macro

+2

What Is the Yield Curve, and Why Is This Steepening Different From a Normal One?

Aug 9, 2026

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3 min read

What Is the Yield Curve, and Why Is This Steepening Different From a Normal One?

The 30-year Treasury yield just hit its highest level since 2007. The curve is steepening, but not the kind of steepening that's usually good news.

Macro

+2

What Is the CFTC COT Report, and Which Version Should You Actually Read?

Jul 20, 2026

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3 min read

What Is the CFTC COT Report, and Which Version Should You Actually Read?

GBP net short just hit a record. The CFTC publishes three different COT reports, and most traders read the wrong one for currencies.

Options Flow

+3

What Is Max Pain in Options, and Does It Actually Work?

Jul 5, 2026

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3 min read

What Is Max Pain in Options, and Does It Actually Work?

25 years of data on the theory that price gravitates toward where options expire worthless. It works less often than the enthusiasm around it suggests, and here is exactly when it does.

Macro

+3

Week in Markets: SpaceX Goes Public, Inflation Hits 4.2%, and All Eyes Turn to Warsh

Jun 13, 2026

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4 min read

Week in Markets: SpaceX Goes Public, Inflation Hits 4.2%, and All Eyes Turn to Warsh

SpaceX surged 19% on its historic debut, CPI hit a 3-year high of 4.2%, and Warsh's first dot plot lands Wednesday. Here is everything that moved markets this week.

Macro

+3

Week in Markets: The Streak Snaps, Chips Crack, and Rate Hike Odds Just Doubled

Jun 6, 2026

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4 min read

Week in Markets: The Streak Snaps, Chips Crack, and Rate Hike Odds Just Doubled

The S&P 500's nine-week winning streak ended on chips, an $80B Alphabet raise, and a blowout jobs report that pushed rate hike odds from 31% to 66%.

OpticAlpha 870
OpticAlpha 870

Market Analysis

+1

The Crypto Fear Gauge Just Hit 11. Here Is What That Actually Mean

Jun 4, 2026

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3 min read

The Crypto Fear Gauge Just Hit 11. Here Is What That Actually Mean

Bitcoin touched the 200-week moving average today. ETF outflows dominate headlines. The on-chain data tells a different story.

OpticAlpha 870
OpticAlpha 870

Market Structure

+1

Is the AI Stock Rally Running Out of Road? What Barclays Is Warning About

Jun 2, 2026

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4 min read

Is the AI Stock Rally Running Out of Road? What Barclays Is Warning About

Barclays says the AI-driven stock rally is increasingly vulnerable to a pullback. Here is what the data shows about crowded positioning, rate risk, and how to hedge.

OpticAlpha 870
OpticAlpha 870

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